Microsoft Research : Predicting and Understanding the 2012 Election
― Description : ∙ For more than 75 years, elections forecasting has been static - ask a random sample of a representative group of voters who they would vote for if the election were held today, and then report the poll result. ∙ In this talk, David Rothschild first demonstrates that the same samples could be addressed with other questions to produce a more accurate standard forecast (such as binary winner or expected vote share). Second, he challenges the standard forecast, [...].
